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Robust Bayesian Optimisation with Unbounded Corruptions
Bayesian Optimization is critically vulnerable to extreme outliers. Existing provably robust methods typically assume a bounded …
Abdelhamid Ezzerg
,
Ilija Bogunovic
,
Jeremias Knoblauch
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Code
arXiv
TabMGP: Martingale posterior with TabPFN
Bayesian inference provides principled uncertainty quantification but is often limited by challenges of prior and likelihood …
Kenyon Ng
,
Edwin Fong
,
David T. Frazier
,
Jeremias Knoblauch
,
Susan Wei
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arXiv
Multilevel neural simulation-based inference
Neural simulation-based inference (SBI) is a popular set of methods for Bayesian inference when models are only available in the form …
Yuga Hikida
,
Ayush Bharti
,
Niall Jeffrey
,
François-Xavier Briol
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Code
arXiv
Stationary MMD Points
Approximation of a target probability distribution using a finite set of points is a problem of fundamental importance in numerical …
Zonghao (Hudson) Chen
,
Toni Karvonen
,
Heishiro Kanagawa,
,
François-Xavier Briol
,
Chris. J. Oates
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Code
arXiv
Kernel Quantile Embeddings and Associated Probability Metrics
Embedding probability distributions into reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS) has enabled powerful nonparametric methods such as …
Masha Naslidnyk
,
Siu Lun Chau
,
François-Xavier Briol
,
Krikamol Muandet
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Code
arXiv
Prediction-Centric Uncertainty Quantification via MMD
Deterministic mathematical models, such as those specified via differential equations, are a powerful tool to communicate scientific …
Zheyang Shen
,
Jeremias Knoblauch
,
Sam Power
,
Chris. J. Oates
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Code
arXiv
Nested Expectations with kernel Quadrature
This paper considers the challenging computational task of estimating nested expectations. Existing algorithms, such as nested Monte …
Zonghao (Hudson) Chen
,
Masha Naslidnyk
,
François-Xavier Briol
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Code
arXiv
Cost-aware Simulation-based Inference
Simulation-based inference (SBI) is the preferred framework for estimating parameters of intractable models in science and engineering. …
Ayush Bharti
,
Daolang Huang
,
Samuel Kaski
,
François-Xavier Briol
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Code
arXiv
Robust and Conjugate Spatio-Temporal Gaussian Processes
State-space formulations allow for Gaussian process (GP) regression with linear-in-time computational cost in spatio-temporal settings, …
William Laplante
,
Matias Altamirano
,
Andrew Duncan
,
Jeremias Knoblauch
,
François-Xavier Briol
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Code
arXiv
Decision Making under the Exponential Family: Distributionally Robust Optimisation with Bayesian Ambiguity Sets
Decision making under uncertainty is challenging as the data-generating process (DGP) is often unknown. Bayesian inference proceeds by …
Harita Dellaporta
,
Patrick O'Hara
,
Theodoros Damoulas
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arXiv
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